Reforms at SAARC

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SAARC has been termed as an “unruly stepchild” in the world of regional organizations by Brookings India. Indeed such a comment is obvious for an organization which is incapable of producing any significant result in the time span of almost three decades. The region inhabits one-fifth of the world’s population. Unfortunately the region is also the home of 40% of the world’s poor.

SAARC is an economic and geo-political regional organization of South Asian countries. But the summits were often the victim of political agendas and became the platform to solve bi-lateral disputes, especially of India and Pakistan. The 18^th SAARC summit was one such example when the prime ministers of both countries shook hands only in retreat ceremony. Interestingly the region apart from having two hostile nuclear powered members is a historical large trade center and has the potential to be one in future.

SAARC is one of the few organizations in the world which is having more observers (35 countries comprising 28 countries being represented by EU) than members (8 countries). This clearly states that the whole world is having an eye over the developments in the area, even though they deny the fact. The members should understand that this area has the potential to be the largest stakeholder of world’s trade. The strategically placed subcontinent can serve as the bridge between the west and the east. It’s high time that the members should go for a complete transformation of SAARC.

First, SAARC should be made a socio-economic body from being just an economic body. The addition of “socio” in the definition increases the scope as well as the importance of the organization. Thus, things like eradication of poverty, improvement of standards of living, health, disaster management, etc. will become the area where joint projects can easily be conducted. Although SAARC has SAARC Human Resources Development Centre (SHRDC), SAARC Disaster Management Centre (SDMC) and SAARC Forestry Centre (SFC) but often the disputes over economic agendas subsides them. By making it an aim, the members can achieve two things: overall human development and solve small disputes that arise due to regional imbalance.

Second, when the major players like US, Canada, etc. in big platforms like COP-20, UNCCC (Lima, Peru) are failing to reach to a particular negotiation on climate change, this organization can setup its local protocols. This is feasible as no member will be against it and moreover the climate in the area nearly same. Thus one can easily frame a target based local Agenda 21 like SAARC Agenda 21. The area is fortunate to have many endemic land and aquatic species of flora and fauna. This will unite the region and they can put forward a common say in the international conferences like UNCCC, CDB, etc. This again brings the countries closer.

Third, the area can form a strong bond by helping each other on the directions of SAARC in case of disasters. Recently, Maldives experienced acute shortage of drinking water and on being asked for helped India and Sri Lanka flew loads of humanitarian aids. If there would have been a stronger SAARC, then Maldives would have asked SAARC to help. On reply SAARC would have asked its entire members to look in the issue and instead of just India and Sri Lanka all the countries would have gone for help. Thus a strategic Disaster Management agenda will help the region to unite fast and work together.

Fourth, frequent meet on cultural and sports platform. Events like SAF Games, Nissar Trophy, M.J. Gopalan Trophy, Youth Meets and University’s student exchange programmes, SAARC scholarships, etc on regular interval will not only bring the people of the region together but also change the mentality by making them more introspective. The more the numbers of platforms where the leaders and authorities of member countries meet the lesser will the disputes.

Fifth, the leaders of the member countries should come up to a negotiation on the similar lines of I.K. Gujral doctrine and forget all the disputes to make SAFTA a success. This should be understood that economically developed countries with free trade between them have least number of problems. Areas like ASEAN who moved over political disputes to opt for free trade and development is one such example. It’s not impossible.

So we conclude that, South Asian countries are enough capable to work together and pave a path for SAARC, from an association of developing and under developed nations toa unit of prosperous countries. But for this the countries need to move over their bilateral disputes and we hope this would happen soon.

Sanctions: Now an old trick

Less than 800 words

Introduction

Sanctions are often seen worse than covert operations or direct military action is unilateral or a collective action against a state considered to be violating international laws or accords. It’s often marked as the diplomatic militancy and collective boycott. A sanctions is attempted to block all trade relations and withholding of vital resources getting into the targeted country which indeed could end up in great internal crisis. The crisis is expected to make the government kneel before the big players and correct the international wrong committed by them. In some cases the targeted country may retaliate in return with extreme measures like wars or smuggle of the necessary items.

Background

The roots of sanction can be traced backed to first half of nineteenth century during the Greek fight for independence from Turkey in 1827, imposed by Britain, France and Russia. The sanction was more open and bold and it was termed as Pacific Blockage, in which the naval forces were deployed on the coastline of targeted country to avoid any foreign trade or external help to enter. Since then sanctions have evolved in its form and intensity. They are not just limited to trade but now the use of Smart-Sanction has made it more effective with targets being few individual or an organization instead of the whole country. This is in-fact a newer form of Divide and Conquer. The banks are the most effective tool to impose sanctions with seizing of the assets and freezing of the bank accounts of the targets. The travel bans, commodity restrictions and financial freezings are now done via diplomatic ways like UN resolutions and EU declarations, thus compelling all its members to impose similar restriction simultaneously.

Achievements and Advantages

The most successful sanction is still considered to be on South Africa in 1977-1991 (thus ending apartheid). There are several unsuccessful ones also like current sanctions on Iraq, North Korea and Russia. In fact the statistics states since 1914, a total of 115 cases we enforced but only 35% were effective. Sanctions sometimes may erupt more ills than corrections like 1941 US-sanction on Japan pushed them to war and 1991 sanction on Iraq bloomed first Gulf war. The Pacific Blockage form of sanction is still prevalent like the one done by India during 1999 Kargil war where Naval troops along Karachi had restricted many vessels with either diplomatic or military forces from entering Karachi, which ultimately led to fuel shortage (as stated by Nawaz Sharif after the war) and withdrawal of reinforcements.

Loopholes

The Globalization of the economy has both helped and weakened Sanction. On one hand countries are depending on foreign trade more with overseas assets but on the other hand several trade treaties and financial powerhouses has emerged as alternatives during sanction. The current sanction on Russia and Iran seems to be ineffective as China and India has decided not to change any policy with them. The enormous oil and natural gas supply from these countries to several small European and African countries have gained them support. Russia being a huge country both in term of economy and physical boundary, is more or less self-sufficient and had previously experienced such moves.

The technological development has made traceability of movement of goods easier but on other hand it has also made secret transactions more secure. The firm stand of North Korea despite sanctions from US and allies clearly state that they are still getting help secretly. Although China is helping openly but there must few other players too. The suspected nuclear advancement of Korea is a result of back-door policy with Pakistan.

The economic sanctions on countries with lesser resources and fragile economy works better. The sanction on countries like Iraq, Kuwait, Burma (now Myanmar), etc. have successfully helped in achieving the desired target. But the sanction imposed on country like India (after first nuclear test back in 1980s) and Russia have made its industrial and economic policies to be intended more towards self-sufficiency. The external effect fusses out with the time.

The countries sometime opt for alternate measures to move their economy forward. The sanction of imports from Cuba had effected it in great way but US neither stopped providing aid to its citizens there nor the tourist visit of Americans. Few years later Cuban tourist boom made USA the second largest source of tourist after Canada.

Another drawback of sanction is that it’s easier to impose but hard to release. The Iranian help to US in ongoing conflict in Iraq against ISIS and the relaxation Cuban sanction cannot pave its path out of White House as they still need the Congress approval which it seems currently not happening. Sanctions may be good or bad but it's efficiency seems to be in doubt.

The Ukrainian Crisis of 2014

less than 800 words

Introduction

The Ukraine crisis of Feb, 2014 followed a series of violence between the protestors and the police in the Ukrainian capital Kiev which led to formation of the new interim government. The protestors were the pro-EU supports known as “Euromaidans” (‘Euro’ refers the European Union and ‘maidan’ refers Maidan Nezalezhnosti/ Indepence Square, the venue of the protest in Nov, 2013). They protested the move of President Yanukovych of not signing the free trade agreement with the EU at Summit of the Eastern Partnership at Vilnius in Nov 2013 and instead he made closer ties with the Russia. The event was one of the most disastrously handled protest in the recent past where the government used all methods to curb it down and even resorted to live ammunition fire on the crowd.

Background

The Ukraine government had asked for financial loan and aid of $20 billion, but the EU was willing to offer $838 million. In return the EU also asked the reforms in major constitutional laws and  the release of Yulia Tymoshenko (ex- PM of Ukraine). On the other hand Russia was ready to give an unconditional loan of $15 billion. The Russian interest in this matter was to grow strong ties will ex-Soviet states and prevent the EU influence near its border. Russia was also afraid of the chances of establishment of a NATO base in Ukraine where Russia is already having a Naval Base. This Ukraine-Russia deal was highly unpopular in the western half of Ukraine whereas the eastern half where ethnic Russian population is more earned popularity. On 18^th Feb 2014, the Right Sector (militant wing of Euromaidans) decided to march till Parliament in protest which led to sever clash with the police. On the other hand Russia dispatched $2 billion and pressurized to curb the protest which turned to rigorous oppression and fire exchange from both sides. US urged Vanukovych for peaceful end to conflict.

Proceedings

Many government buildings were raided by the protestors and the police retaliated by burning down the Euromaidans headquarters. The fierce movement was intervened by a negotiating body of EU having the forgein ministers of Poland, France and Germany, who bought the leaders of both sides to a agreement which had following points:

1. Return of captured Government buildings and fortification of the weapons by Euromaidans
2. The constitution that was in force between 2004 to 2010 to be re-enforced in original form with few reforms to be completed by September 2014
3. Fresh President Election to be held before December 2014.

The Parliament unanimously voted for the change in the constitution and release of the Tymoshenko, while it also accused the current government with grave charges. Euromaidan leader Andriy Parubiy pressurized for sooner elections and demanded for Yanukovych’s resignation. On 21^st February 2014, the President resigned and fled away. The next day all the top officials were sacked and replaced. Major laws change took place. An interim government was formed.

Aftermath

The casualties during the protest were more than 100 while more 1000 were injured. It was a setback to already sliding economy giving rise to fuel prices by 50%. The UEFA shifted the venue of the on-going UEFA Europa League from Ukraine to other venues. Nearly 25 monuments of Lenin were destroyed.  The interim government formed, favored EU. It was recognized by US, EU and may other countries. Few countries like Russia didn't recognized the new governments terming it to be a coup d’état.

The eastern and southern half of the Ukraine which was pro-Russian and ethnic Russian majority erupted in protest to secession crisis after the revolt. Crimea, a semi-autonomous part of Ukraine was the worst affected one. The protest again the new Government rose, leading to the rise of Crimean crisis. Russia mobilized its army in Crimea to support pro-Russian movement. A referendum was held and the huge majority of people voted in favor of separating Crimea from Ukraine and making it a part of Russia. Treaty was signed with Russia on 18^th March and Crimea was accessed to the Russian federation. This move has been highly criticized in the Western country and many sanctions have been forced on Russia.

A similar revolt is also taking place Donetsk in eastern Ukraine for its accession to Russia after a successful referendum, but unlike Crimean crisis Russia is not in a hurry. With frequent and organized guerrilla attacks, the area has almost become a no-go for the Ukrainian government.

India’s Stance

India has taken a neutral stance in this matter, something similar to time of Afghan-Russian war in last century. India’s stand is justified because on one hand USA and EU are the new building partners whereas on the other side Russia is the old and faithful friend. India has asked both the sides to end the conflict in peaceful manner.